Report on Horizon Online: Guerrilla's Alleged Next Live Service Game, with Horizon 3 Expected to Be

Guerrilla Games, renowned for their Horizon series, has reportedly pivoted towards an ambitious new venture: Horizon Online. This move aligns with the trend of live service games, although the anticipated Horizon 3 appears to be on the backburner, according to industry insider Jason Schreier during his conversation on Spawn Wave's Spawncast.

Despite the enduring popularity of Horizon Zero Dawn, the decision to develop a live service variant raises questions about future interest in the franchise. Alongside Horizon Online, Guerrilla is also set to release a remastered version of Horizon Zero Dawn and an innovative Lego collaboration, Lego Horizon Adventures. The success of these projects could significantly influence the direction of Horizon Online.

Sony's broader strategy in the live service domain has been met with mixed results. Helldivers 2, developed by Arrowhead, emerged as a record-breaking success on PC and PlayStation 5. Conversely, Firewalk's hero shooter, Concord, experienced one of the most dramatic failures in PlayStation's history, demonstrating the volatile nature of the live service market dominated by long-established games.

This volatility has prompted Sony to reevaluate its live service plans, cutting down from twelve projects to just six slated for release by the end of the 2025 fiscal year. This scale-back was followed by significant layoffs within Sony’s PlayStation division, affecting key studios such as Insomniac and Naughty Dog, and even led to the closure of PlayStation's London studio.

Despite these challenges, Guerrilla Games is forging ahead with Horizon Online. In July, studio director Jan Bart van Beek described the project as a monumental shift for Guerrilla, akin to their original work on the first Horizon game. The upcoming multiplayer experience aims to introduce a new cast and artistic direction, as confirmed by a job listing in December 2022.

Alongside Horizon Online, Guerrilla continues development on the sequel to Horizon: Forbidden West, hinting at more adventures for the beloved protagonist, Aloy. However, fans of the single-player experience may need to be patient, as Horizon Online seems to be the studio's current focus.

As Sony navigates these strategic shifts, the success of Horizon Online could set a precedent for the viability of live service games within the company's portfolio. The full implications of this shift are detailed in a comprehensive analysis, which draws parallels to other industry developments, such as the potential delay of GTA 6, as discussed in Best Crazy Games' blog and further elaborated on Crazy Games Online. These insights underscore the intricate dynamics at play in the ever-evolving landscape of video game development.

The gaming industry is at a crossroads, particularly with the shift towards live service models, a trend that Guerrilla Games seems to be embracing with Horizon Online. This evolution in gaming not only aims to keep players engaged over longer periods but also reflects a larger shift in how companies are viewing game profitability and community engagement. Live service games offer continuous updates and expansions, theoretically ensuring a steady revenue stream through microtransactions and seasonal content. However, this model also comes with risks, as seen with the failures of high-profile projects like Concord and Rocksteady's Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League.

The mixed successes of Sony's live service strategy illustrate a significant learning curve. The phenomenal success of Helldivers 2 juxtaposed with Concord's failure highlights the unpredictable nature of player reception and market demand. Sony’s cautious approach going forward, as evidenced by their scaled-back live service game slate, suggests a strategy of calculated risks and perhaps, a more critical selection process for future projects.

Guerrilla Games, in the meantime, is navigating these turbulent waters by expanding the Horizon universe in multiple directions. The commitment to Horizon Online signifies a belief in the franchise's potential to transcend its traditional single-player roots and tap into the burgeoning market of online multiplayer experiences. The studio's venture into new creative territories with Horizon Zero Dawn's remaster and the novel Lego Horizon Adventures also indicates a strategy of diversifying offerings to capture a broader audience.

This strategic diversification is crucial in an era where gamers' preferences are rapidly evolving. With the upcoming sequel to Horizon: Forbidden West, Guerrilla not only promises to continue Aloy's narrative but also to deepen the Horizon universe's lore and player connection through online interactions. How Guerrilla balances this expansion with the inherent expectations of their fan base will be key to their success in a fiercely competitive market. The outcome will likely offer valuable insights into the sustainability of live services as a core strategy in the modern gaming industry.